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The Future of Mankind

Predictions are easy to make, but seldomly turn into reality. Thinking back to my youth, we all believed that space travel and flying cars and robots were within our grasp, but only few people at that time realized the rise of the mobile phone, social media or the dramatic effects of global warming through carbon dioxide emissions.

IT’s importance is steadily increasing, even causing doubts about our own reality, but if we look back at the past, what can we learn from it for our future? Is space travel indeed possible? Is humanity’s progress linear or happening in leaps and bounds?

I studied biology, and within that discipline the topic of evolution is particularly intriguing. Evolution is a great driving force, not only in the biological world, but also in chemistry and physics and even in human behavior and religion (the topic of the “meme” as opposed to “gene” – more about that later). 

Evolution is hardly ever linear, it seems to find its way through a highly complex, multidimensional maze of influencing factors and powers.

Species come and go. The dinosaurs ruled the world for millions of years, but disappeared (most likely) in the aftermath of an asteroidal impact and a resulting dramatic drop in temperature.

It is these types of unpredictable, uncontrollable events that greatly affect life on Earth. One of those factors that has come evermore center stage over the last few years is volcanic eruptions, as combined research across multiple disciplines can now better unravel major past eruptions and their effects. 

I spent some time reading up on volcanic incidences of the last few thousand years. 

The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) indicates the strength of an eruption, and the truly big ones are above a VEI of 6. About three dozen of those happened in the last 2000 years. Eruptions of this strength can dramatically cool global climate and lead to global winter, a result of the amount of sulfur dioxide emitted.

One such event was the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia). It caused a dramatic cooling of the Earth’s atmosphere, leading to the “year of no summer” in 1816. That year was characterized by a dramatic agricultural disaster. A red fog covered parts of the globe, and crops froze to death. Rain in Europe ruined the harvest and famine broke out, forcing families to travel long distances, begging for food. Food prices rose sharply, farmers and enterprises went out of business and riots broke out. In Asia, the monsoon was disrupted and flooding further impacted the death of the harvests.

This explosion had a VEI of 7, and was comparable to another explosion that happened about 1900 years ago.

Try to imagine the effects of such a blast on today’s world. The ash of such an eruption would lame all air traffic (which didn’t exist in 1816). The associated agricultural catastrophe would lead to dramatic food shortages, which would especially affect the densely populated regions of our world. Millions of people would die, social unrest would break out.

In the years after 1816, recovery seems to have been swift, but it is suspected that in the aftermath e.g. the migration from New England towards the Midwest may have accelerated. I would suspect that such an explosion would have much more dramatic socio-economic effects on our global, hyperconnected and therefore more vulnerable society. It could lead to a breakdown or at least redirection of our technological development. It would certainly and dramatically affect our society and it’s development.

How can we protect ourselves from such a catastrophe? It is wise to stockpile food and water so that survival is possible for weeks, or even better months. The challenge is that today’s supply chains will break down quickly, and not only in case of a volcanic eruption. Beyond that – there’s very little that can be done. Life is unpredictable, as is evolution.

Books

Ten Surprising Facts You Never Knew!!!

Regularly, at workshops, moderators try to break the ice with an ominous question: “State your name and reveal one fact about yourself that nobody knows.”

This usually causes cold sweat or heavy allergic reactions amongst the assembled.

But fear no longer! Here a few answers that I have personally provided successfully over the years, and which you are free to re-use.

  • I have a dog and live on a farm
  • On Hawaii I once attended (voluntarily) a Neil Diamond concert
  • I used to smoke pipe
  • I was lead singer in a country and western band
  • I love cooking
  • I have a brother that sent a rocket to Pluto
  • I was radiation security officer at university
  • I killed a marten with a shovel
  • I love reading about the Roman Empire
  • I once literally ran into Telly Savalas (aka Kojak) at JFK airport
  • I’ve visited 32 states of the USA
  • I write post apocalyptic novels and donate the proceeds to charity
  • I love camping

Naturally not all are true: on three occasions I’ve told a little lie. Can you guess which may be a hoax?

Naturally, your answer may need to be adjusted to the other answers; if the other participants claim to climb Mount Everest or sail the Pacific on a weekly basis, you will need to come up with a similarly strong position. Here a few examples that will help you stick out from the crowd.

“A little-known fact about me?”

  • I sing opera, and I am working on my first recording
  • I’ve spent time in jail
  • I’m an anarchist
  • I once killed a man with my bare hands
  • I knit
  • In my free time I’m a taxidermist
  • I run the ironman twice a year (works best if look overweight)
  • I collect wine and have 20000 bottles in my cellar
  • I sell drugs and have 20 kg in my cellar
  • I once planned a sex change operation but canceled last minute
  • I’ve had intimate relationship with three… uh…four participants in this workshop
  • In my spare time I love to do absolutely nothing
  • I love to sit on the sofa and listen to the silence / my tinnitus

Listen to this: the Tale of the Fig Leaf

A man enters a costume store. “Listen darling,” he addresses the proprietress, “I plan to attend a costume party, and I have decided to dress up as Adam, and hence I need a fake fig leaf.”

”OK,” says the woman, “Just a minute.” She disappears in the back and after a few minutes returns with a plastic fig leave.

”Sorry love,” says the bloke, “That’s too small to cover MY manhood. Don’t you have anything bigger?”

The woman shrugs and disappears, returning with a larger leaf.

”No, that is still too small.”

Grumbling, the woman disappears again, returning with a huge leaf, big enough to cover a man’s torso.

The man shakes his head: “No, no, that won’t do. It’s simply too small!”

”OK,” says the woman, “Here’s an idea, mister. If your penis is that big, why don’t you stick it in your ear and go as a gas pump?”

Here’s a SECRET you never knew. Read until the very end – and more.

Whose moon is that? I think I know.
Its owner is quite a happy bro.
Full of joy like a vivid rainbow,
I watch him laugh. I shout: hello.

He gives his moon a shake,
And laughs until his belly aches.
The only other sound’s the break,
Of distant waves and birds awake.

The moon is pale, tranquil and asleep,
But bro has promises to keep,
After cake and lots of sleep,
Sweet dreams come to him cheap.

He rises from his gentle bed,
With thoughts of aliens in his head,
He eats his jam with lots of bread.
Ready for the day ahead.

Lovely music for a Sunday afternoon – piano accompanied by powerful visual marketing

Found this CD by Deutsche Grammaphon in a small used-book and music shop in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The man who sold it said that it was a great choice… even though the lady on the cover looks as if her cat died. Or is she suffering from a bad hangover?

Drinking song (a poem)

A quick internet search revealed: Martha Argerich is a classical concert pianist from Argentine, widely considered one of the greatest pianists of all time.

Looks can deceive ;-)

Drinking song (a poem)

We stood looking at the sky
Could this get any worse
All of it a man endless lie
What was the hidden verse
The sun swung like a naked bulb
Leaking gooey power
Emptied glasses in a single gulp
Shivery shower
A never ending bellow
Just didn’t sound right
One was yellow
Afraid of the night
Hit the right dose
Bleeding broken nose
Comatose
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Rattle my Cage (a Poem)

Rattle my cage /

Rock my chair /

Open my door /

Pull my chain /

Don’t tell a lie /

Don’t harm a fly /

Don’t feed the dog /

Don’t spank the hog /

Empty my mind /

Leave me behind /

Let me be /

Just let me be.

 

 

 

Buddy, our unphotographable dog, hard at work protecting our house

Buddy is now ten years old, and through his long experience, he knows that the best spot to see the street is from the top of the stairs. With his tennis ball in his mouth, he can even take an occasional nap, should the strain of guarding take its toll.

Alas! iPhone cameras have been optimized for blond dogs, not black ones, so Buddy’s features aren’t easy to recognize.B87A4983-87A2-423F-94A5-0B0425779A90.jpeg

Endless (a poem)

Horizon a long line running left to right

last star signing off

sunrise with all its might

cold morning air with all sounds subdued

desert mountains and sky bluest hued

engine starts with a roar

pedal to the metal

motel disappears behind

the endless road forever on my mind

 

 

Party time! Here’s the list of all people that will join me on my birthday. Is your name missing? Drop me a note! A poem.

Poem: “My Birthday Invitees

Harry, Dean and Maren

Susie, Susette and Bret

Georgina, Walter and Karen

James, Jimmy and Ted

Tilda Swinton, Ganesh, Paris and Klaus

George Kennedy, Filippe and his mouse

Jenny and Fran

Luc and Dan

Jimbo, Claude-Ulrich and Hans

And that lesbian couple we met during vacation in France

That woman from the telly

That guy with the belly

Carol and Freddie

Maria and Eddy

Jenny, Tim, Nathalie and their dog

Donald, Denise, little Kevin and his frog

Ivanka and Melania for good measure

Let’s not forget Grandma the old treasure

Paulie and Pauline

Bernie and Sien

Angela, Angelina, Angel and the Devil

Benjamin Britten and Axel Rose

The loudspeaker inventor Bose

Barbara, Marni and Cynthia Nixon

Schubert, Schumann and Pi

And let’s not forget the neighbors… and me.

An Interview with… me! You can now see and hear me speak about my novel TWO JOURNEYS

This short movie can be found on YouTube. Tune in! Click here now!

Find out more about my Books

Are we all just part of a magnificent computer simulation?

About a year ago I was the host of a business dinner in New York, half a dozen men and women met at a fine restaurant after a day of intensive meetings. Perfect food, some great wine and a very nice group of people from hard- and software companies, the majority from the USA, some from Europe.

The conversation focused on business, but soon turned to other topics. We discussed politics, history… and computing. These people were all computer specialists, many with engineer degrees. At a certain point the discussion turned to the theory that we do not exist, but instead are just avatars on a piece of very advanced hardware. This theory is not new: Elon Musk is one its proponents (seems to be favored by engineers). It is based on the observation that computers are becoming more and more advanced dnd that the distinction between virtual reality (VR) and reality seems to be disappear. Some time in the far future, somebody will be able to create a computer that doesn’t just simulate my brain (which according to some estimates may be possible in 50 years or so), but the brain of all humans. It is just a matter of scale; throw in some quantum computing, sufficient hardware and real-time analytics with artificial intelligence, and it should be possible to do this.

We could thus easily just IMAGINE that we are physically alive, today and here on this planet; whereas in reality we are just characters in a very advanced computer game played by a acne-faced teenager 200 years in the future. Everything that we experience; all pain and suffering and love would then only be simulation.

Little speaks against this theory from a technical standpoint: as long as technical progress continues (to accelerate) at the pace it has for the last 150 years, this is easily imaginable. This is naturally also a weakness of the theory: life on Earth and history hardly ever were linear (although this may seem so to us, as we only experience a fragment of history); for instance, about every 1000 years or so, major volcanic eruptions happen, which tend to dramatically alter the development of human culture and progress. But still; these may delay development of a super computer, but a delay doesn’t mean that it would never be created.

So why do I still think there is no value in this theory? The main argument is that although this theory MIGHT be true, there is NO way to prove or disprove it. It is a theory that isn’t falsifiable. By what criteria could anyone prove that we are, or are not part of a simulation? It is similar to stating that we are created by a supernatural being, or that after death we go to heaven, or that an invisible fairy is living in the back of my garden.

A theory that cannot be falsified has no value.

My eBooks on iTunes here.

My Resolutions for the New Year. Revenge is a dish best served cold.

80% of all new year resolutions are dead and buried latest by January 21st, research has shown. The reason is that many people set unrealistic goals. This year I have decided to focus 100% on resolutions that are completely realistic and achievable.

  1. Exercise more: train the heart muscle by being more nervous.
  2. Train other mussels during scuba diving.
  3. Protect the environment by driving less – stop traveling from “A to B” constantly. What’s so special about B anyway?
  4. Knowledge is Power. The importance of education cannot be underestimated! Make sure that no one gets smarter than me, so kill any training requests by colleagues, employees and family members in the bud.
  5. Buy a fur coat for showing off in the city center.
  6. Take up nail biting.
  7. Invest in the future!  E.g. by selling pets for animal experiments.
  8. Sell the dog for animal experiments.
  9. Drink less – definitely!!! Need to reduce water intake, focus on beer instead.
  10. Gain weight.
  11. Take revenge on mother for terrible childhood. Revenge is a dish best served cold; meaning that it is better not to act in the heat of the moment, but to let the matter rest (if not ripen) for a while, and then strike and reap the fruits of ones patience. Apparently a Sicilian saying, although I mostly associate it with Fu Man Chu.

So, that’s done. Meet you end of January.

More about my books here.

chapi chapi

Revenge is a dish best served cold

A Poem. The Night has no Rhythm

The night has no rhythm

curtain with yellow and red flowers

flowing in the light of morning sun

fly buzzing in and out

new chapter

east, west, north, south

nightstand

stack of books, lamp, glass and bottle

feet on cold floor

new land

Enter the day – full throttle

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